Reselling

How to Invest in LEGO Sets in 2026: Retiring Sets & GWPs

· 10 min read · By the Friends & Family team

In late September 2026, LEGO's US Retiring Soon page listed 299 products, including the $849.99 UCS Millennium Falcon that's been on shelves since 2017. Here's how to buy the right sets before they're gone, and how to keep fees from eating the profit.

16-bit pixel art of sealed building-brick set boxes stacked in a treasure vault with gold coins and a rising chart

Here's how to invest in LEGO sets: buy sealed sets at or below retail before LEGO retires them, store them carefully, and sell once store stock is gone and collectors have to turn to the resale market. The next big wave is due to retire at the end of December 2026.

This is general information, not financial advice. Only buy what you're comfortable holding for years.

Can You Buy LEGO Stock?

No. According to LEGO, the LEGO Group is owned by LEGO Holding, which is owned by KIRKBI A/S, the Kirk Kristiansen family's holding company (75%), and the LEGO Foundation (25%). Wikipedia lists it as a private company, so there are no LEGO shares to buy on a stock exchange.

When people talk about LEGO investing, they mean the sets themselves: buying sealed boxes and selling them after they retire.

Is LEGO a Good Investment? What the Research Says

The best-known study comes from HSE University. Victoria Dobrynskaya and colleagues looked at 2,322 LEGO sets from 1987 to 2015, in a paper published in Research in International Business and Finance. They found:

  • Average returns of 10–11% a year, more than stocks, bonds and gold.
  • Weak correlation with the stock market. LEGO prices were growing even during the 2008 financial crisis.
  • Prices usually start rising two or three years after a set retires.

The caveats matter just as much:

  • Returns ranged from -50% to +600% a year. An average hides plenty of losers.
  • The authors say LEGO is worthwhile only in the long term, meaning over three years.
  • It comes with higher transaction costs than financial securities, like delivery and storage.

Those are historical averages, not a promise of future returns. So is LEGO a good investment? It can be, for the right sets, bought at the right price and held long enough. Your buy price decides the profit, which is why the rest of this guide is about picking and buying well.

How LEGO Retirement Works (and How to Tell a Set Is Retiring)

Timing starts with retirement. Per StoneWars, 2026 retirements come in two waves: a mid-year wave dated July 31 and an end-of-year wave in December.

Here's how to track what's leaving:

  1. LEGO.com's Retiring Soon page. LEGO flags sets that "will be officially retired very soon." It's the closest thing to an official list.
  2. BrickEconomy. LEGO doesn't officially announce retirement dates, so BrickEconomy predicts them and shows a probability for each set. As of this writing, it gives the Beauty and the Beast Castle (43263) a 93.4% chance of retiring at the end of 2026.
  3. Brickset. Each set page lists launch and exit dates. The Millennium Falcon (75192) runs from October 1, 2017 to December 31, 2026.

One warning: exclusives can vanish early. StoneWars notes that once production ends, sets sold only by LEGO or a small number of retailers "often disappear much faster than widely available sets." When more than 120 sets were due to retire on July 31, the Zelda Great Deku Tree (77092) was already unavailable in the US by early June, weeks before its date.

LEGO Sets Retiring in 2026: The Big December Wave

For LEGO investing in 2026, the December wave is the one to watch. These are some of the biggest sets on Jay's Brick Blog's September update, which works from LEGO's Retiring Soon pages and lists each of them as retiring in December 2026 (US prices):

Set Number US price
Millennium Falcon (UCS) 75192 $849.99
Venator-Class Republic Attack Cruiser 75367 $649.99
Jabba's Sail Barge (UCS) 75397 $499.99
Grand Piano 21323 $399.99
X-Mansion 76294 $329.99
Natural History Museum 10326 $299.99
Beauty and the Beast Castle 43263 $279.99
The Endurance 10335 $269.99
The Burrow – Collectors' Edition 76437 $259.99
Mercedes-Benz G 500 PROFESSIONAL 42177 $249.99
Mercedes-AMG F1 W14 E Performance 42171 $219.99
The Nightmare Before Christmas 21351 $199.99
Vincent van Gogh – The Starry Night 21333 $169.99

Treat this as a list of sets that are leaving, not a buy list. A "retiring" label alone doesn't make a set a good hold. For breakdowns of individual sets, browse our Lego guides and videos.

Which Sets Tend to Grow (and Which Don't)

The HSE study found some clear patterns:

  • Small and very big sets beat medium ones. The researchers think that's because small sets often contain unique parts or figures, while big ones are made in small quantities and appeal more to adults.
  • Themes tied to famous buildings, popular movies and holidays grow the most. The top examples they name include the Millennium Falcon, Taj Mahal and Death Star II.
  • Limited editions and promotional sets do well too, because rarity increases their value to collectors.

The classic example is the original Ultimate Collector's Millennium Falcon (10179). It cost $499.99 in 2007 and retired on December 31, 2009. Brickset, using BrickLink data, now puts it at about $2,005 new, roughly four times its retail price.

That's even though LEGO released a new, bigger UCS Falcon in 2017 (75192, with 7,541 pieces to the original's 5,197). So do LEGO sets come back? Popular subjects can, as new versions. This original stayed valuable anyway, but a remake is a risk to weigh on any hold.

Medium-size licensed sets are the harder call. See how we weigh one in our breakdown of LEGO Dragon Ball Shenron & Goku (11390): flip, hold or pass. For a quick take on licensed sets, watch our short on Marvel Lego sets.

How to Invest in LEGO Sets: Buy Below Retail

Your buy price decides your profit, so the cheapest way into a set is usually the smartest one. The HSE study found returns were even higher for sets bought new at a discount.

LEGO Insiders points. US members earn 6.5 points per $1 spent, and points can be redeemed for "discounts on future purchases, exclusive sets and items," among other rewards. The program only applies at LEGO.com, official LEGO Stores and participating partners. LEGO Certified Stores don't count.

Gifts with purchase (GWPs). LEGO often gives away a promo set when you buy a specific set or spend a minimum. Two examples from late September 2026:

  • Grond (40893, $29.99 value) free with The Lord of the Rings: Minas Tirith (11377) on LEGO.com, September 22–30.
  • Scary Haunted Tree (40900, $19.99 value) free on $100+ orders at LEGO.com, LEGO Stores and by phone, September 21–30.

Offers change often, so check LEGO's offers page for what's running when you read this. Read the terms before you count on one. They say one per household, while supplies last, and a gift can't be applied to previous purchases. Some are Insiders-only, like the Birthday Cake (40780) earlier in September. And if you return the qualifying purchase for a refund, the gift must go back too.

Some GWPs become flips of their own. The Kanto Region Badge Collection that came free with LEGO Pokémon 72153 did: watch how we flipped it.

Returns. Buying from a retailer that accepts returns is low-risk while you're inside the return window, since you can send a set back if the math changes. Just remember that returning a GWP purchase means returning the gift.

Keep It Sealed: Storage That Protects Your Profit

Condition is a big part of the value. That same 10179 Falcon is worth about $2,005 new but about $850 used on BrickLink, per Brickset. Same set, more than twice the price in new condition.

Store your boxes like the inventory they are:

  • Keep them out of direct sun. BrickNerd notes that long-term UV exposure is bad for LEGO bricks, finds blue and white the most prone to discoloring, and would be cautious about direct sunlight for more than several months.
  • Keep them flat, dry and off the floor. Crushed corners and water damage are exactly what a sealed-set buyer is paying to avoid.
  • Count storage as a cost. HSE lists storage and delivery as real transaction costs, and a closet full of UCS boxes adds up.

When and Where to Sell (Do the Fee Math First)

When: for a long hold, there's usually no rush to sell the week a set retires. HSE found secondary-market prices usually start climbing two or three years after retirement, and the authors call LEGO worthwhile only as a long-term investment of more than three years.

Where: BrickLink is the largest online marketplace for reselling LEGO, and the LEGO Group bought it on November 26, 2019. You can also sell on eBay. The fees are very different:

  • BrickLink charges sellers 3% of the order total on the first $500, 2% on $500 to $1,000 and 1% above that. Its fee page doesn't cover payment processing, so check what your payment method adds.
  • eBay charges 13.6% of the total sale in most categories, up to $7,500 (2.35% above that), plus $0.40 per order over $10. The total includes shipping and sales tax, not just the item price.

Say you sell a retired set for $1,000, and the buyer also pays $30 shipping and $70 sales tax:

  • BrickLink: $25 on the $1,000, or $26 if shipping and tax count toward the order total (its fee page doesn't say).
  • eBay: 13.6% of $1,100 is $149.60, plus $0.40, for $150.

That's roughly a $125 gap in marketplace fees before any payment costs on BrickLink. Run numbers like these, along with what you paid and what storage cost you, before you call a set a winner.

5 LEGO Investing Mistakes to Avoid

  1. Paying full retail with nothing extra. No GWP, no points and no discount means a thinner margin from day one.
  2. Buying medium "meh" sets. The research favors small and very big sets, plus sets tied to popular movies, famous buildings and holidays.
  3. Selling too soon. Prices usually take two or three years after retirement to climb.
  4. Ignoring fees and storage. A 13.6% eBay fee on a total that includes tax, plus years of storage, can wipe out a modest gain.
  5. Assuming every retiring set goes up. The HSE data includes returns as low as -50% a year, and LEGO does make new versions of popular sets.

How We Find the Sets Worth Buying

Knowing how to invest in LEGO sets is the easy part. Knowing which sets to buy, and when, takes daily work. That's what our Lego reselling group on Discord is for:

  • Sneakerdude posts the hottest arbitrage opportunities for retiring sets, so you can buy at retail before a set leaves shelves.
  • Blaine, our Lego guy, posts Lego calls so members know which sets are worth buying and which to skip.
  • GWP alerts when LEGO runs a gift with purchase worth grabbing.
  • Where to sell it: calls cover what a set resells for and where to sell it.
  • 1-on-1 help from our Lego team, part of our 20+ expert staff.

"The most incredible Lego calls and everything in between." — Pandora, Whop review

Lego is part of Friends and Family Complete, which also covers Pokémon, sports cards, vinyl and more in our full reselling group. It's $17.50 a week with a 7-day free trial, billed through Whop, and rated 4.9/5 from 439 reviews. New to reselling? Start with how to start reselling.

Friends & Family is an independent reselling community and isn't affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by the LEGO Group.

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